April 21, 2025, the U.S. Department of Commerce has announced new tariffs on solar products from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, with anti-subsidy duties reaching up to 3403.96%.

The new tariffs come after a year-long investigation into solar products largely made by Chinese manufacturers who shifted production to Southeast Asia to avoid previous tariffs. These four countries supply about 77% of U.S. solar panel imports, worth $12.9 billion last year.

Anti-dumping duties range from 6.1% to 271.28%, depending on the company and country. Anti-subsidy duties range from 14.64% to 3403.96%, with Cambodia facing the highest rate of 3521%. Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia also face steep tariffs, with some companies facing rates of 395.9%, 375.2%, and 34.4%, respectively.

While the tariffs are expected to benefit U.S. manufacturers, they may raise costs for renewable energy developers, who have relied on cheaper imports. This could slow the growth of the U.S. solar market and create more uncertainty for the industry.

Economic Impact:

Economists warn that these tariffs could lead to a U.S. recession by 2025 if they remain in place. Stosten Slok, an economist, predicts a 90% chance of economic contraction, especially for small businesses, which account for 80% of U.S. jobs.

A Response to Chinese Dominance in Solar:

The tariffs target solar products from countries where Chinese manufacturers have moved production to avoid U.S. duties. The new tariff rates are significantly higher than those announced in the preliminary stages. Cambodia's tariff for solar cells and modules is set at 125.37%, while anti-subsidy duties reach an unprecedented 3403.96%. Malaysia faces 81.24% anti-dumping duties, Thailand 202.90%, and Vietnam 271.28%.

Impact on U.S. Solar Manufacturing:

The U.S. Solar Manufacturing Trade Alliance supports the decision, seeing it as a win for American producers. Tim Brightbill, the Alliance's lawyer, praised the high tariffs, which he believes will protect U.S. manufacturers from unfair pricing. However, critics argue that these tariffs could hinder solar deployment in the U.S. due to the country's insufficient domestic manufacturing capacity, especially for solar batteries.

Ongoing Uncertainty:

The new tariffs add another layer of uncertainty to the U.S. solar market. While solar manufacturing capacity in the U.S. is expected to grow, it remains uncertain whether it will be enough to meet domestic demand.

Background:

This trade dispute dates back to 2018, when SolarWorld Industries America Inc. filed complaints against Chinese solar imports. Since then, the U.S. has taken action against Chinese manufacturers moving production to other regions to evade tariffs. The current case, filed by U.S. manufacturers, marks the third round of anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations.

The U.S. International Trade Commission is expected to make a final ruling on June 2, which could further shape the solar trade landscape.