Antimony prices have surged by nearly 250% in 2024, as a result of China's recent export bans on critical minerals like gallium, germanium, and antimony. These price hikes, along with a global shortage of key materials, have intensified the scramble among international buyers looking to secure supplies of this essential element, which plays a crucial role in both semiconductor and military applications.

As of December 31, 2024, antimony prices in Rotterdam reached between $39,500 and $40,000 per metric ton, marking an all-time high. Traders expect prices to climb even further, potentially surpassing $40,000 per ton in the wake of China's export restrictions. These prices reflect a significant increase, as antimony is already a critical material in the production of semiconductors and other high-tech products.

“We have already sold small quantities at $40,000 per ton,” said a minor metals trader in Europe. “Non-Chinese sellers will continue to raise prices to maximize their profits.”

China has long been the dominant global producer of antimony, supplying nearly half of the world's demand, which totaled 83,000 tons in 2023 according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). With the ban, China aims to consolidate its mineral production for internal use, and traders are now exploring alternatives to meet global demand.

Ellie Saklatvala, Head of Non-Ferrous Metals Pricing at Argus, noted, “The U.S. has been diversifying its supply chains away from China, buying more from Southeast Asia. However, it remains uncertain how quickly they will be able to fill the gap left by China.”

Alongside antimony, China's export ban also includes gallium and germanium, although the impact on the U.S. market is expected to be limited, as the U.S. had already stopped purchasing these minerals from China. However, the overall trade disruption has led to a bullish market sentiment, with traders capitalizing on the uncertainty to push prices higher.

“The ban on raw materials from China highlights the importance of finding alternative supplies outside of China,” said Theo D. Ruas, Global Sales Manager for Metals & Compounds at Indium Corporation. “Self-sufficiency must be a priority for the U.S. government in the short term.”

Concerns are rising about what other metals China could target for export restrictions, with some traders speculating that bismuth and manganese might be the next to face limitations.

Antimony's critical role in both civilian and military technologies is underlined by its use in semiconductor materials, including infrared detectors and Hall-effect devices. The growing geopolitical tensions, especially related to the U.S. and China, have further raised the stakes for these strategic materials. Since 2009, the U.S. has placed strict export controls on antimony-based semiconductor technologies due to their military applications, reflecting the material's strategic importance in the high-tech sector.

Given its essential role in modern technology, especially in military electronics, China's latest move to restrict antimony exports is seen as a direct countermeasure to the ongoing Western efforts to limit China's access to advanced semiconductor technologies. This move highlights the growing significance of antimony as a crucial component in the semiconductor industry, and it could further accelerate the global shift towards securing independent supply chains for critical materials.